Yesterday afternoon, endangered southern resident killer whales (SRKWs) were sighted in Monterey Bay, California. This was a very rare sighting of L pod members at the extreme southern end of their range. They haven’t been seen in Monterey Bay since 2011. Here’s what it looked like from the drone of Monterey Bay Whale Watch:
SRKWs have twice turned away from California in recent years, probably because they failed to find enough fish to warrant continuing their southward journey. In March 2015, L and K pods were sighted briefly north of Cape Mendocino but the track of L84 who carried a satellite tag did not continue further south that spring. There was a similar excursion into northern California on Jan 19, 2016 by K pod (inferred from the track of the satellite tag carried by K33), but again the orcas turned around.
Messages from orcas to Californians
This visit should be heralded by Californians as a clear indication that Chinook recovery may have worked a little bit in your State and should continue! This year the orcas decided it was worth going all the way to Monterey.
But the visit should also provide this more urgent message: California salmon are critical to the recovery of the SRKW population and the needs of orcas should be prioritized in ongoing efforts to recover salmon and manage water in the State. This winter and spring, the SRKWs continue to seek their preferred prey, Chinook salmon, all along the west coast of the continental U.S., just as they most likely have done for millennia (especially during the last glaciation when the Salish Sea was solid ice!).
We should understand this behavior as a clarion call for us all to work together to bring Pacific salmon back to west coast rivers. For L pod in particular, and likely K pod, too, it’s important to recover salmon not only in Washington and British Columbia, but also in Oregon and California. A good omen is that the latter States have abbreviations that combine to spell ORCA!
Long-lost memories of California Chinook
It’s a safe assumption that the wise matriarchs of L pod are expecting the amazing abundance of salmon that long-ago returned to the Sacramento and San Juaquin Rivers. These rivers formed the vast, fertile central valley of California and are fed by countless tributaries that drain the west side of Sierra Nevada mountain range. L pod’s southward search each winter-spring is probably led by the deep memories of L25 (aka “Ocean Sun”) who is estimated to be in her 90s. She could be remembering the California salmon run sizes of the 1930s!
Best estimates put the historic size of the Sacramento-San-Juaquin spring-run Chinook run at more than 600,000 fish in the late 1880s to 1940s (CDFW Status review, 1998). The relevant recovery plan states that after ~1940 dams had extirpated (driven to local extinction) the spring-run Chinook in the San Juaquin River and that the total spring run varied from 3,000 to 30,000 fish between 1970 and 2012. L25 likely witnessed Chinook runs on the continental shelf from Monterey Bay north that were almost 100x the size of modern returns (i.e. recent minima of a few thousand fish, or less) in an era when the dams that would devastate the runs were just beginning to be built!
CA salmon: damned from the beginning of the 20th century. (Source: the amazing “Historical Abundance and Decline of Chinook Salmon in the Central Valley Region of California” by Yoshiyama et al., 1998)
Sadly, due to the onslaught of many kinds of human impacts over the last 200 years in California — within the central valley, across the San Francisco Bay, and along the coastline — there aren’t many salmon left in the rivers. A June 2018 assessment by NOAA of salmon stocks that are most important to SRKWs, highlights the threatened Central Valley (CV) Spring-run Chinook ESU of the Sacramento River and its tributaries as 13th most important overall, and the 5th most-important of the spring run-type. But the latest status review (2016) provided this recent depressing 15-year trend in listed Chinook escapement (the number of fish that return to their spawning grounds, “escaping” various fisheries and other sources of mortality) —
The recent state of Sacramento Chinook is a total run down to less than 1,000 fish. See also Figure 1 of the 2016 Status Review for a break-down by tributary which shows how the main-stem Sacramento population flat-lined in 1990.
— and concluded with these ominous sentences:
In addition to the low adult returns observed in 2015, juveniles hatched in the drought years of 2013 through 2015 are expected to produce low adult returns in 2016 through 2018. Based on the severity of the drought and the low escapements as well as increased pre-spawn mortality in Butte, Mill, and Deer creeks in 2015, there is concern that these CV spring-run Chinook salmon strongholds will deteriorate into high extinction risk in the coming years based on the population size or rate of decline criteria.
Just like in Washington and BC, the main fresh-water problem for salmon is human development. What was previously pristine habitat is upper watersheds is now a vast inaccessible area (cross-hatched on the map).
Let the orcas remind us to recover salmon, despite the complexities in CA, OR, WA, and BC
Recovering Pacific salmon, particularly Chinook, in California will be big challenge for us humans, just as it’s a grand challenge in Washington State. Perhaps together we can find the will and means to save both the orcas which connect us through their migrations, and the salmon that they seek year-round.
Take action this spring, wherever you live along the west coast. Go watch Artifishal (screenings start this month!). Support a salmon conservation organization in every State or Province, not just your own. Make a personal sacrifice for the whales and the fish!
Monday, April 1, 2019: CHEK News story (with drone footage that shows interesting linear flank-to-flank alignment of many L pod individuals)
P.S. Tokitae should be in CA not Florida
I learned writing this that the eldest orca sighted on Sunday in California, ~90-year-old L25 is also the mother of Tokitae, the last-surviving southern resident orca in captivity. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the Miami Seaquarium returned her to a sea pen in her native Pacific summetime habitat?
12:09 Starts with introduction of the science panel members
12:12 We were charged with evaluating the BiOp’s “chain of logic linking Chinook salmon fisheries to population dynamics of SRKW”
Population decline in both NRKW and SRKW was coordinated in late 1990s.
We were blown away by the quality of SRKW demographic data. This is probably one of the best-studied wildlife populations in the world.
Eric Ward estimated growth rate (lambda) as 0.99-1.04 (mean ~1.017, or ~1.7% exponential growth) for J/K pods and 0.985-1.035 (mean ~1.01, or ~1% exponential growth). The overall SRKW rate of 0.71% per year might increase to ~1%), but fisheries management changes are unlikely to raise the growth rate to the recovery goal.
There are 1000s of papers about Chinook salmon, but less is know about Chinook topics relevant to SRKWs. Listed 3 shortcomings.
Kope and Parken summarized Chinook trends for specific stocks important to SRKW. Coastwide there has been a modest decrease in recent pre-harvest Chinook abundance. There isn’t much room to lower commercial fishing in a meaningful way (e.g. decrease harvest of 20%).
Correlations between SRKW vital rates and Chinook abundance depends on abundance measure chosen. Mortality of SRKW should scale non-linearly with salmon abundance, but the existing correlations are linear.
12:38 Questions
Bain: Why weren’t acoustics impacts of fishing vessels considered? A: I don’t know. Perhaps because available data did not include fishing boats.
Felleman: Were analyses done using only Columbia Chinook? A: No, but you should email Eric Ward about that. You should also be careful about interpreting correlations as causal relationships. If you look for correlations from 50 different salmon populations, you’ll find strong ones just through random chance.
12:50
Elizabeth Babcock, NOAA
The intersection of salmon and orca recovery
Focus is on Puget Sound stocks. Locally-developed recovery plans for Puget Sound Evolutionary Significant Unit (14 watersheds from Neah Bay to Point Roberts; 22 populations) reviewed in 2005, then adopted plan in 2007, and are now implementing with partners.
70% of our estuary habitat area in Puget Sound have been lost…
Ward looked at all available Chinook time series and found many correlations, including between runs, but the strongest correlations were not with the Fraser nor the Columbia.
Interesting population projection figure from Ward (2013)
Post-workshops we have been looking at trends in other marine mammals: AK and NR KWs increasing, CA sea lions now ~6x 1975 levels, harbor seals 6-8x…
Overview of salmon status
Historic Chinook salmon abundance figure (compiled Jim Myers, NWFSC): Biggest reductions were in Columbia (~-3-5x) and Central Valley (~-3-4x)
Bonneville time series (1938-2014) shows abundance declines happened a long time ago (pre-dams!). 2014 levels approaching 1888 average levels!
A lot of the historical losses are due to extirpations (Gustafson et al., 2007): biggest extinct populations were in Columbia above Grand Coulee and Snake
Run timing changes: Columbia example — ~10x reduction in interior run (above Bonneville) from ~2.5 million to ~200k.
Hatchery production rose from 1950 to peak in mid-80s and in 2000 was near 1970s levels (Naish et al. 2007)
Puget Sound historical abundance is ~700k (based on cannery pack in 1908); current wild escapement is ~50k; hatcheries add ~300k.
Recovery activities
Habitat: 31,000 projects completed at 51,000 locations throughout Pac NW. Over $1 billion spent on restoration to date.
Hatcheries: overall reductions in hatchery releases in last few decades, and limiting genetic impacts on wild fish. One example of reductions to near zero is on OR coast…
Harvest: easiest to change and responsive; examples of successful catch reductions are Hood Canal summer chum. Coastwide harvest % has decreased by ~factor of 2 over last 30 years
Hydro: improved fish passage, predator control, spill, barging; dam removal on Elwha, Condit, Rogue, Sandy, Hood River
Heat: potential effects of climate change mostly not great for salmon; summarized by Stoute et al. 2010 and Wainwright and Weitkamp in prep
Budget comparison
Orca recovery spending: FY12 1.2M on science/research; ~300k on management/conservation
Orca salmon spending: FY12 600M!! Columbia only is 450M!
1:40 break
David Troutt, Director of Nisqually Natural Resources (for 35 years) and Chair of SRC (=Salmon Recovery Counci)
WA State salmon recovery — How we work together
2:02
State broken into regions, each with their own recovery plans (developed through the “WA way” involving many stakeholders, endorsed by Feds). Go to RCO web site for more information.
Study completed in March 2011 estimated costs of all planned regional plans is ~$5.5 billion. Funds dispersed through Salmon Recovery Funding Boards established in 1999. Funds come from PCSRF and others… Note: it is a LOT cheaper to protect than to restore…
10% of Federal grants must be used for monitoring. Example: About 80% of Nisqually outgoing smolts remain in estuary; 20% seek pocket estuaries elsewhere, but we see almost no returns of fish using the latter strategy.
There is a problem with marine survival in Puget Sound. We see 95% mortality of tagged out-going smolts between the Nisqually and Port Angeles. We’re confident that the estuary is in much better shape and 77% of the mainstem is in permanent stewardship, but we’re not seeing any result in the numbers of returning adults!
2:15 Tribal perspectives
Story: a generation of Nisqually fishers have never caught a steelhead. Annual catches of ~2k by tribes and ~2k by recreational fisheries collapsed (in 1990s?) to total run of ~500, a condition which persists. The treaties have not been withheld (and the tribes have not “shot at y’all in a long time”).
We need to work together towards ecosystem restoration. The tribes are interested in actions related to all H’s. The tribes have been working with the State to adapt how we run hatcheries to support harvest, but also be consistent with recovery goals. The North of Falcon process is part art, part science, but it is transparent and it works.
Rich Osborne, North Pacific Coast Lead Entity Coordinator (WRIA 20)
WA Sustainable Salmon Partnership — Salmon recovery on the WA coast
2:25
What’s unique about the outer coast in terms of salmon restoration?
All 5 salmon species and steel head; none are listed except Ozette sockeye.
Large areas are encompassed within tribal lands, which allows alternative restoration strategies.
Almost no people! Only 7000 people on coast with no residential areas
Large portions of watersheds in National Park, other large areas in National Forests.
Formed a non-profit to raise money beyond the SRFB: the WA Coast Sustainable Salmon Foundation. WRIA 21 = Quinalt; WRIA 22&23 Grays Harbor; WRIA 24 Pacific County.
Example projects:
Goodman Creek road decommissioning (4 miles of road and fill removed)
Quinalt: old logging road and fish passage blockage removal — facilitated by ability for tribe to control local decisions.
Grays Harbor: huge estuary Chehalis has spectrum of impacts (industrial, logging, headwaters in National Park), but again not many people
Pacific County (Willapa Bay): huge estuary w/few people; mostly Weyerhauser timber operations between pristine upper watersheds and the ocean.
28 Chinook stocks returning only 30-40,000, but could be 100s of 1000s…
An additional 12 million hatchery fish released from coastal watersheds per year
Salmon stronghold study areas (circa 2006)
 Jeannette Dormer, Puget Sound Partnership
Salmon Recovery in Puget Sound
2:45
In contrast, there are 4.1 million people in the Puget Sound region: 12 counties, 20 large cities, 100 cities total, 17 treaty tribes, many NGOs; 15 lead entities; Puget Sound Salmon Recovery Council (not the Partnership) is policy body to oversee implementation of the PS salmon recovery plan.
6 salmonid species, 3 listed under ESA (PS Chinook threatened in 1999, Hood Canal summer chum threatened in 1999, 2007 Puget Sound steelhead).
Salmon recovery success example: Puget Sound Acquisition & Restoration (PSAR) Fund. Regional priority list; increased from $15 million to $70 million appropriated for 2013-2015 biennium
100s of acres of estuary restoration in Snohomish and Skagit rivers
Elwha dry lake bed reforesting
3+ acres eel grass on Bainbridge
Seahurst seawall removal and restoration
Intersection with orca…
3:05
Jacque White, Exec. Director of Long Live the Kings (used to work at P4PS and Nature Conservancy)
Salish Sea marine survival project
Many partners supporting the coordinating organizations — Long Live the Kings in U.S. and Pacific Salmon Foundation in Canada
“Puget Sound salmon are sick and we don’t know why…”
Coho marine survival declined sharply in 1980s from ~3% to <~0.5% and has persisted, while during the same period (1974-2007) WA/BC coastal survival has been fluctuating around a mean of ~0.5%. There are similar trends for steelhead and Chinook.
Rises in Harbor seals, lags, temperatures, and human population
Little effort to integrate research efforts
Now seeing economic impacts on humans (sports fishing, tribes, First Nations)
Time line:
2007 State of the Salmon in 2007 focused on interactions of wild and hatchery salmon
2012 fall workshop led to idea of a transboundary project to increase survival in the Salish Sea, improve accuracy of adult return forecasting, and assess success (or failure) of existing salmon recovery efforts.
2014 Comprehensive planning
2015+ Implementation of research
Hypotheses (trying to identify factors that control salmon and steelhead survival that can be managed)
Bottom-up processes (PDO, environment, forage fish changes to which salmonids haven’t been able to compensate)
Top-down (predation…)
Other factors (toxics, disease…)
Research activities
Focus on juvenile fish
Predation of seals on steelhead
3:45 break
Panel discussion (audio recording: .ogg [~68 Mb] | .mp3 [~34 Mb]; responses are hard to hear for some panelists who did not use microphones)
3:58 Begin
5:14 Final comments and next steps (also included in audio recordings)
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